Uncertainty is a personal matter; it is not the uncertainty but your uncertainty..

Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it..

In teaching there can be too much emphasis on certainty and a proper appreciation of uncertainty is to be encouraged..

Consider the case of a person who holds a view with probability 1. Then coherence says that it is no use having a debate with them because nothing wi….

It is not surprising that in talking about uncertainty we should lean heavily on facts, just as the court of law does when interrogating witnesses. F….

Generally there is Stigler's law of eponymy that says that a scientific notion is never attributed to the right person; in particular, the law is not….

Utility is the emotion pleading to be let into the house of pure reason and thereby enriching it..

It is dangerous to attach probability zero to anything other than a logical impossibility..

The grand assertion is that you must see the world through probability and that probability is the only guide you need..

In my opinion, it helps enormously to know why something is true, rather than being told it is true, for why should you believe me? Never believe any….

Almost all thinking people agree that you should not have probability 1 (or 0) for any event, other than one demonstrable by logic, like 2 x 2 = 4..

I believe that almost all important, useful ideas are simple. Peter Whittle has recently put it nicely in an autobiographical essay. "If a piece of w….