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And knowing what happens on average is a good place to start. By so doing, we insulate ourselves from the tendency to build our thinking - our daily decisions, our laws, our governance - on exceptions and anomalies rather than on reality
Steven Levitt
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Interpretation

What this quote means

Understanding averages helps us make better decisions by focusing on reality rather than outliers.

This quote emphasizes the importance of relying on average data and facts when making decisions, whether in personal life or governance. By grounding our thoughts and actions in what is typical rather than what is exceptional, we can avoid the pitfalls of misjudgment that stem from emotional responses to rare occurrences or anomalies.

Themes

AveragesDecisionsRealityGovernanceThinking

In practice

Example use cases

During a workshop on data analysis, the quote can be used to highlight the importance of statistics in decision-making.

More from Steven Levitt

Data, I think, is one of the most powerful mechanisms for telling stories. I take a huge pile of data and I try to get it to tell stories.
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If you own a gun and have a swimming pool in the yard, the swimming pool is almost 100 times more likely to kill a child than the gun is.
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The key to learning is feedback. It is nearly impossible to learn anything without it.
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Go out and collect data and, instead of having the answer, just look at the data and see if the data tells you anything. When we're allowed to do this with companies, it's almost magical.
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