Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can. You don't expect dentists to be able to forecast how many teeth you'll have when you're 80. You expect them to give good advice and fix problems.
Interpretation
Economists often overestimate their ability to predict future economic events, similar to how dentists cannot predict the exact number of teeth you'll have in the future.
In this quote, Tim Harford highlights the limitations of economic forecasting, suggesting that while economists may propose they can make predictions, the reality is that uncertainty in human behavior and variables in the economy make accurate forecasting nearly impossible. He compares economists to dentists, who provide valuable advice and solutions but cannot foresee long-term outcomes, emphasizing the importance of focusing on guidance rather than predictions.
In practice
This quote can be used in presentations about economic policies to underscore the importance of seeking practical advice over predictions.
It's difficult because we tend to overrate the pain of failure. We fear it too much. That's research that emerges from psychology. We think it's going to be worse than it really is. And, I think, as we get a bit older, really after we leave school or college, we quickly stop experimenting.
In certain businesses, I would say 10 failures to one success is a perfectly acceptable ratio. Because the failures die pretty quickly, they're not that expensive, and the successes can be really huge.
Success Comes Through Rapidly Fixing our Mistakes Rather than Getting Things Right the First Time.
Tell the truth, but tell it slant.
There are goods so opposed that we cannot seize both, but, by too much prudence, may pass between them at too great a distance to reach either.
It's not a slam at you when people are rude, it's a slam at the people they've met before.
The best way to defend the bombers is to catch the enemy before it his in position to attack. Catch them when they are taking off, or when they are climbing, or when they are forming up. Don't think you can defend the bomber by circling around him. It's good for the bombers morale, and bad for tactics.
We can't cross that bridge until we come to it, but I always like to lay down a pontoon ahead of time.
Intelligence and education that hasn't been tempered by human affection isn't worth a damn.
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