The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained..

To better avoid errors, you should talk to people who disagree with you and you should talk to people who are not in the same emotional situation you….

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future..

So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to..