If you look back historically at the post-WWII period on average, if you get a 100-basis-point increase in Fed funds, the spillover to the ten-year is only 35 basis points, and 25 basis points into the 30-year - it's a fairly small spillover effect.
Let's say [Donald] Trump wins. Is Congress going to let him build a wall on the Mexican border? I don't think so. - Gary Shilling
Let's say [Donald] Trump wins. Is Congress going to let him build a wall on the Mexican border? I don't think so.
- Gary Shilling
[Donald Trump] is so unpredictable that foreigners are going to look around and say "boy, we've got to head for the safe havens." And one of the safe… - Gary Shilling
[Donald Trump] is so unpredictable that foreigners are going to look around and say "boy, we've got to head for the safe havens." And one of the safe…
Bloomberg TVThe one thing I think is likely to happen under either candidate is massive fiscal stimulus. You have so many voters in Western Europe an… - Gary Shilling
Bloomberg TVThe one thing I think is likely to happen under either candidate is massive fiscal stimulus. You have so many voters in Western Europe an…
Treasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries. - Gary Shilling
Treasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries.
TPP is dead anyway, and similar deals in the eurozone are going nowhere. - Gary Shilling
TPP is dead anyway, and similar deals in the eurozone are going nowhere.
If someone loves you, they can fall out of love with you but they're probably going to keep fearing you. That's where we are with [Donald] Trump. - Gary Shilling
If someone loves you, they can fall out of love with you but they're probably going to keep fearing you. That's where we are with [Donald] Trump.
Investors aren't willing to accept the idea that we're in an era of lower returns. - Gary Shilling
Investors aren't willing to accept the idea that we're in an era of lower returns.
We've seen that in the past that where you've had uncertainty, and even where the Fed is raising rates, Treasurys rise as everybody heads for safety. - Gary Shilling
We've seen that in the past that where you've had uncertainty, and even where the Fed is raising rates, Treasurys rise as everybody heads for safety.
Despite the recent conviction of many that we're headed back to inflation, I think deflation remains the more likely prospect. You've just got too mu… - Gary Shilling
Despite the recent conviction of many that we're headed back to inflation, I think deflation remains the more likely prospect. You've just got too mu…
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