There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
Interpretation
Expertise does not guarantee accurate predictions in uncertain fields like stock picking and political forecasting.
In this quote, Daniel Kahneman emphasizes the limits of human expertise in fields characterized by high uncertainty and variability. He uses the analogy of dice-throwing monkeys to illustrate that, despite their experience, experts may perform no better than random chance in predicting outcomes in these domains, thereby highlighting the unpredictability inherent in such complex systems.
In practice
This quote can be used in a discussion about the limitations of financial forecasts during a stock market seminar.
We think, each of us, that we're much more rational than we are. And we think that we make our decisions because we have good reasons to make them. Even when it's the other way around. We believe in the reasons, because we've already made the decision.
The average investor's return is significantly lower than market indices due primarily to market timing.
Banks are run by executives, and executives protect themselves, and that does not always mean that banks are going to behave rationally.
Laziness is built deep into our nature.
Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
If the single man plant himself indomitably on his instincts, and there abide, the huge world will come round to him.
From the cradle to the grave is a school, so if what we call problems are lessons, we see life differently.
There is perhaps no psychological skill more fundamental than resisting impulse.
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are?
This is a very important practice. Live your daily life in a way that you never lose yourself. _x000D_ _x000D_ When you are carried away with your worries, fears, cravings, anger, and desire, you run away from yourself and you lose yourself. _x000D_ _x000D_ The practice is always to go back to oneself.
It is right that we should stand by and act on our principles; but not right to hold them in obstinate blindness, or retain them when proved to be erroneous.
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