Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
Interpretation
Our intuitive thinking can still be flawed regardless of our knowledge or experience.
In this quote, Daniel Kahneman reflects on the nature of intuitive thinking and how, despite his extensive study of cognitive biases and limitations, he finds that he is still susceptible to the same overconfidence and planning errors as before. This highlights a fundamental aspect of human cognition: that our innate tendencies can persist even with increased awareness and knowledge, reminding us to remain humble about our decision-making processes.
In practice
In a discussion about cognitive biases, this quote can highlight the persistent challenges of intuitive thinking.
We think, each of us, that we're much more rational than we are. And we think that we make our decisions because we have good reasons to make them. Even when it's the other way around. We believe in the reasons, because we've already made the decision.
The average investor's return is significantly lower than market indices due primarily to market timing.
Banks are run by executives, and executives protect themselves, and that does not always mean that banks are going to behave rationally.
Laziness is built deep into our nature.
Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
Mindfulness is about being fully awake in our lives. It is about perceiving the exquisite vividness of each moment. We also gain immediate access to our own powerful inner resources for insight, transformation, and healing.
The greatest force of personal liberation is the decision to widen our circle of compassion, moving from focus on self to focus on service.
The human mind treats a new idea the same way the body treats a strange protein; it rejects it.
Desolation is a file, and the endurance of darkness is preparation for great light.
Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next.
The wise man looks back into the past, and does not grieve over what is far off, nor rejoice over what is near; for he knows that time is without end.
Subscribe for the occasional hand-picked quote. No noise.