Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
Interpretation
Our intuitive thinking can still be flawed regardless of our knowledge or experience.
In this quote, Daniel Kahneman reflects on the nature of intuitive thinking and how, despite his extensive study of cognitive biases and limitations, he finds that he is still susceptible to the same overconfidence and planning errors as before. This highlights a fundamental aspect of human cognition: that our innate tendencies can persist even with increased awareness and knowledge, reminding us to remain humble about our decision-making processes.
In practice
In a discussion about cognitive biases, this quote can highlight the persistent challenges of intuitive thinking.
We think, each of us, that we're much more rational than we are. And we think that we make our decisions because we have good reasons to make them. Even when it's the other way around. We believe in the reasons, because we've already made the decision.
The average investor's return is significantly lower than market indices due primarily to market timing.
Banks are run by executives, and executives protect themselves, and that does not always mean that banks are going to behave rationally.
Laziness is built deep into our nature.
Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
No one knows you better than you know yourself. Do the thing you want. Don't wait for someone else
The fool wonders, the wise man asks.
Do everything with a mind that lets go. Do not expect praise or reward.
The experienced writer says to the anguished novice: 'Just do it; get something, anything, on to the screen or page, just establish a flow of words, and criticise them later.' You give this advice but can't always take it.
People with great gifts are easy to find, but symmetrical and balanced ones never.
A psychologist said to me, there are only two important questions you have to ask yourself. What do you really feel? And, what do you really want? If you can answer those two, you probably can leave your neuroses behind you.
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