Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
Interpretation
Our intuitive thinking can still be flawed regardless of our knowledge or experience.
In this quote, Daniel Kahneman reflects on the nature of intuitive thinking and how, despite his extensive study of cognitive biases and limitations, he finds that he is still susceptible to the same overconfidence and planning errors as before. This highlights a fundamental aspect of human cognition: that our innate tendencies can persist even with increased awareness and knowledge, reminding us to remain humble about our decision-making processes.
In practice
In a discussion about cognitive biases, this quote can highlight the persistent challenges of intuitive thinking.
We think, each of us, that we're much more rational than we are. And we think that we make our decisions because we have good reasons to make them. Even when it's the other way around. We believe in the reasons, because we've already made the decision.
The average investor's return is significantly lower than market indices due primarily to market timing.
Banks are run by executives, and executives protect themselves, and that does not always mean that banks are going to behave rationally.
Laziness is built deep into our nature.
Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
Cynicism masquerades as wisdom, but it is the farthest thing from it. Because cynics don’t learn anything. Because cynicism is a self-imposed blindness, a rejection of the world because we are afraid it will hurt us or disappoint us.
Being self-critical is good; being self-hating is destructive. There's a very fine line there somewhere, and I walk it carefully.
As long as you are unable to access the power of the Now, every emotional pain that you experience leaves behind a residue of pain that lives on in you.
Knowing others is wisdom; Knowing the self is enlightenment; Mastering others requires force; Mastering the self needs strength.
The ability to focus attention on important things is a defining characteristic of intelligence.
That's your responsibility as a person, as a human being - to constantly be updating your positions on as many things as possible. And if you don't contradict yourself on a regular basis, then you're not thinking.
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