Sometimes the biggest disasters aren't noticed at all β no one's around to write horror stories.
Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
Interpretation
What this quote means
The quote suggests that advancements in technology will soon lead to the development of superhuman intelligence, which could ultimately change or end human dominance.
Vernor Vinge's quote reflects a profound concern about the future trajectory of technological development, specifically in the realm of artificial intelligence. He predicts that within the next thirty years, we will possess the tools necessary to create intelligence that surpasses human capabilities. This advancement could signal the end of the human era, as entities with superhuman intelligence may outpace us in terms of decision-making, understanding, and control over our lives and society.
Themes
In practice
Example use cases
During a tech conference discussing the future of AI, this quote can serve as a cautionary note about the rapid advancements in technology.
More from Vernor Vinge
All quotes βWe will soon create intelligences greater than our own ... When this happens, human history will have reached a kind of singularity, an intellectual transition as impenetrable as the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole, and the world will pass far beyond our understanding.
Little fish risking everything for a piece of godhood...and not knowing heaven from hell, even when they find it.
The problem is not simply that the Singularity represents the passing of humankind from center stage, but that it contradicts our most deeply held notions of being.
Similar quotes
Most people in AI, particularly the younger ones, now believe that if you want a system that has a lot of knowledge in, like an amount of knowledge that would take millions of bits to quantify, the only way to get a good system with all that knowledge in it is to make it learn it. You are not going to be able to put it in by hand.
Most people assume that once security software is installed, they're protected. This isn't the case. It's critical that companies be proactive in thinking about security on a long-term basis.
Measured in time of transport and communication, the whole round globe is now smaller than a small European country was a hundred years ago.
The Open Source theorem says that if you give away source code, innovation will occur. Certainly, Unix was done this way... However, the corollary states that the innovation will occur elsewhere. No matter how many people you hire. So the only way to get close to the state of the art is to give the people who are going to be doing the innovative things the means to do it. That's why we had built-in source code with Unix. Open source is tapping the energy that's out there.
When you invent the ship, you also invent the shipwreck; when you invent the plane you also invent the plane crash; and when you invent electricity, you invent electrocution...Every technology carries its own negativity, which is invented at the same time as technical progress.
In computing, turning the obvious into the useful is a living definition of the word "frustration".