How could economics not be behavioral? If it isn't behavioral, what the hell is it?
Charlie MungerRead
The world of derivatives is full of holes that very few people are really aware of. It's like hydrogen and oxygen sitting on the corner waiting for a little flame.
Interpretation
The quote warns about the hidden complexities and potential dangers in the derivatives market.
Charlie Munger highlights the underappreciated risks and unforeseen consequences associated with derivatives, comparing them to hydrogen and oxygen which can be harmless on their own but create a powerful explosion when combined with a spark. This analogy serves to remind investors that the derivatives market, while seemingly simple, can lead to significant financial instability if not understood properly.
In practice
When discussing the potential dangers of financial markets at an investment seminar.
How could economics not be behavioral? If it isn't behavioral, what the hell is it?
I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don't believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody's that smart.
Economics is in many respects the queen of the soft sciences. It's expected to be better than the rest. It's my view that economics is better at the multi-disciplinary stuff than the rest of the soft science. And it's also my view that it's still lousy.
Look at this generation, with all of its electronic devices and multitasking. I will confidently predict less success than Warren, who just focused on reading.
Economics profession, they've been - they've been confident in various formulas, but economics is not physics. The same formula that works in one decade doesn't work in the next. Economics is a difficult subject.
As I talk about strengths and weaknesses in academic economics, one interesting fact you are entitled to know is that I never took a course in economics. And with this striking lack of credentials, you may wonder why I have the chutzpah to be up here giving this talk. The answer is I have a black belt in chutzpah. I was born with it.
When I trade, I don't have an agency problem; I have my neck on the line. When a bank or banker trades, it's not his neck on the line.
A big part of financial freedom is having your heart and mind free from worry about the what-ifs of life.
The thing I have discovered about working with personal finance is that the good news is that it is not rocket science. Personal finance is about 80 percent behavior. It is only about 20 percent head knowledge.
The propensity to swindle grows parallel with the propensity to speculate during a boom the implosion of an asset price bubble always leads to the discovery of frauds and swindles
Your most expensive advice is the free advice you receive from your financially struggling friends and relatives.
Indeed, bull markets are fueled by successive waves of prior skeptics finally capitulating as their fears fade. Eventually, fear turns to euphoria, and that's the stuff of bubbles.
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