We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
Nate SilverRead
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
Interpretation
What this quote means
It's more important to have a reasonable accuracy in predictions than to aim for perfection, as striving for 100% may indicate flawed assumptions.
Nate Silver emphasizes the importance of setting realistic expectations in forecasting. He suggests that aiming for an accuracy of 80%-85% is sufficient for effective decision-making, and that striving for complete accuracy may lead to misguided conclusions or overconfidence in predictions, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties inherent in predictions.
Themes
PredictionsAccuracyForecastingEstimationsRealism
In practice
Example use cases
In a team meeting discussing project timelines, one might say, 'As Nate Silver noted, we want to get 80%-85% of predictions right to allow for some flexibility in our planning.'
More from Nate Silver
All quotes βA lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news.
Nate SilverRead
Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
Nate SilverRead
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate SilverRead
A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view.
Nate SilverRead
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
Nate SilverRead
Similar quotes
In today's rush we all think too much, seek too much, want too much and forget about the joy of just Being.
Eckhart TolleRead
I believe in intuition and inspiration...at times I feel certain I am right while not knowing the reason.
Albert EinsteinRead
People make mistakes all the time. We learn and grow. If there's patience and love, and you care for people, you can work them through it, and they can find their greatest heights.
Pete CarrollRead
When you are on a great horse, you have the best seat you will ever have.
Winston ChurchillRead
When I was a young boy, during the aftermath of World War II, Germany was broken and in ruins. Many people were hungry, sick, and dying. I remember well the humanitarian shipments of food and clothing that came from the Church in Salt Lake City.
Dieter F. UchtdorfRead
Your failures won't hurt you until you start blaming them on others.
Zig ZiglarRead