We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
Interpretation
What this quote means
Racism stems from a lack of interaction with diverse groups, leading to predictable prejudices.
In this quote, Nate Silver highlights the idea that racism is often a result of unfamiliarity and isolation from different racial groups. When individuals do not engage or interact with people who are different from them, they may develop preconceived notions and biases that can manifest as racism. The predictability of these attitudes underscores the importance of fostering dialogue and interactions among diverse communities to break down barriers and combat racism.
Themes
In practice
Example use cases
During a discussion on social media about racial issues, you might share this quote to emphasize the need for diversity.
More from Nate Silver
All quotes →We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news.
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view.
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
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To renounce liberty is to renounce being a man, to surrender the rights of humanity and even its duties. For he who renounces everything no indemnity is possible. Such a renunciation is incompatible with man's nature; to remove all liberty from his will is to remove all morality from his acts.
The mere suggestion that not speaking for a day can give you an appreciation of the social isolation that comes with the experience of disability, particularly those whose impairments prohibit them from communicating verbally, is insensitive at best.
This non-proletarianised plebs has been racialist when it has been colonialist; it has been nationalist - chauvinist - when it has been armed; and it has been fascist when it has become the police force.These ideological effects on the plebs have been uncontestable and profound.
Prisons are built with stones of Law. Brothels with the bricks of religion.
But I’ve been turning over in my mind the question of nostalgia, and whether I suffer from it. I certainly don’t get soggy at the memory of some childhood knickknack; nor do I want to deceive myself sentimentally about something that wasn’t even true at the time—love of the old school, and so on. But if nostalgia means the powerful recollection of strong emotions—and a regret that such feelings are no longer present in our lives—then I plead guilty.