We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
Interpretation
What this quote means
Racism stems from a lack of interaction with diverse groups, leading to predictable prejudices.
In this quote, Nate Silver highlights the idea that racism is often a result of unfamiliarity and isolation from different racial groups. When individuals do not engage or interact with people who are different from them, they may develop preconceived notions and biases that can manifest as racism. The predictability of these attitudes underscores the importance of fostering dialogue and interactions among diverse communities to break down barriers and combat racism.
Themes
In practice
Example use cases
During a discussion on social media about racial issues, you might share this quote to emphasize the need for diversity.
More from Nate Silver
All quotes βWe're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news.
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view.
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
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Some false representations contravene the law; some do not. The law does not pretend to punish everything that is dishonest. That would seriously interfere with business, and, besides, could not be done. The line between honesty and dishonesty is a narrow, shifting one and usually lets those get by that are the most subtle and already have more than they can use.
The justification of majority rule in politics is not to be found in its ethical superiority.
If God has made your cup sweet, drink it with grace; if He has made it bitter, drink it in communion with Him.
We live in a world that treats the dead better than the living. We, the living are askers of questions and givers of answers, and we have other grave defects unpardonable by a system that believes death, like money, improves people.
I don't think I want to win anything I think I want to die unadorned.