When an economist says the evidence is "mixed," he or she means that theory says one thing and data says the opposite.
Interpretation
Mixed evidence suggests a conflict between theory and actual data.
This quote by Richard Thaler highlights the common scenario in economics where theoretical predictions do not align with empirical data. It reflects the complexity and unpredictability of economic behavior, emphasizing the importance of examining both theory and data to draw meaningful conclusions.
In practice
In a presentation about economic indicators, you could use this quote to emphasize the importance of understanding data beyond theoretical models.
The ability of businesses to monitor our behavior is already a fact of life, and it isn't going away. Of course we must protect our privacy rights. But if we're smart, we'll also use the data that is being collected to improve our own lives.
If you're trading individual securities, you're almost certainly making a mistake. Because most professional managers can't outperform their benchmarks, and there's little reason to think that individuals can.
In the 1940s, economics started getting highly mathematical. It was basically because economists weren't smart enough to write down models of real behavior that they started writing down models of highly rational behavior - and they kind of forgot about humans.
Academia does not provide many opportunities for immediate gratification. You work for two years on a project, it takes two more years to get it published, and then you start hoping someone might read it.
In the world of traditional economics, it shouldn't matter whether you use an opt-in or opt-out system. So long as the costs of registering as a donor or a nondonor are low, the results should be similar. But many findings of behavioral economics show that tiny disparities in such rules can make a big difference.
My thesis topic was 'The value of a human life.' I asked people a question: 'Suppose you had some risk, a one in a thousand risk of dying - how much would you pay to eliminate it?'
Philosophy of science is about as useful to scientists as ornithology is to birds.
Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation.
If we think of our chromosomes - they carry our genetic material - as being like shoelaces, I work on the plastic tips at the end that protect them.
As Darwin himself was at pains to point out, natural selection is all about differential survival within species, not between them.
[T]here are depths of thousands of miles which are hidden from our inquiry. The only tidings we have from those unfathomable regions are by means of volcanoes, those burning mountains that seem to discharge their materials from the lowest abysses of the earth.
See first, think later, then test. But always see first. Otherwise you will only see what you were expecting. Most scientists forget that.
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